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Horse Betting - we're on track! LOOKING FOR UNDERDOGS
This is a horse betting analysis and suggestion article. We don't intend to point out the winners every time, our goal is to suggest positive expected value bets in the long term.
This Thursday there are two bet suggestions
Horse Betting - we're on track! Two units this Friday
This is a horse betting analysis and suggestion article. We don't intend to point out the winners every time, our goal is to suggest positive expected value bets in the long term.
Today's bet: Sandown - Pontefract - Race 5 - 20h30 (UK time)
The Law of Compensation
I had to try everything to be sure I'm naturally more gifted in the probability and Over/Under 2,5 markets.
The advantages of investing in Sports Betting
Imagine you have 100 thousand to invest and find a fund that allows you a return of 14% a year.
If you have a bank of 100 thousand divided into 40 units, you would have 2500 per unit. Therefore, throughout a season, if you had placed 304 bets, you would have placed 760 thousand in bets, which means betting 7,6 times the value of your bank.
Now imagine you have the same 14% ROI over 760 thousand…
Interpretation and analysis of Betfair market graphics
You have certainly wondered how is it possible to predict market movements in Betfair and how can you interpret the information presented at those markets.Well then, to interpret that information you need to understand a few financial market concepts.
Is it easier or harder to bet on football matches than on other sports?
Unlike football, in sports played for points, as well as in horse racing, the numbers are more predictable because the stats are more reliable and it's easier to find patterns. In Football matches, on the other hand, we depend on goals, which don't happen that often.
Sports bet trading based solely on a technical analysis
If in live trading we can predict fast odd rises and falls, in pre-match we can also predict variations in matches with low uncertainty, just by analysing the market.
Partnering with a friend
Paulo Rebelo's Chronicle for Remate Magazine ("O Jogo" newspaper supplement) - 25 February 2012"Are you unsure about entering the betting world?
Try partnering up with a friend!"
Strategy: Back the Under 2,5 after the first goal with protection
We should never refer to a bet as protection. The bet should be analysed separately and, if it has no value, should not be placed.
My advice is to introduce a qualitative analysis into this tactic and refine your entries to avoid placing bets mechanically on all situations.
What is behind the fair odd calculation
To arrive at the fair odd, be it an Over/Under or on a 1X2 market, we must take into account everything that is relevant to that match: tables and pre-live statistical indicators, news or other psychological, less measurable factors of the teams and match.